READ THE RULES NOW: AND REDUCE THE RISK OF UNPLEASANT SURPRISES IN SEASONAL FOOTBALL BETTING

By Kevin Pullein

Ante-post bets for many football fans offer the hope of excitement that will grow throughout the season. If you wait that long, you do not want your last feeling to be crushing disappointment. You do not want to be told by a bookmaker that you have lost a bet you thought you had won.

Here from my experiences as a member of the IBAS Adjudication Panel are a few of the things most bettors already know but some do not.

Points deductions

They count almost everywhere.

Last season two Premier League teams and three EFL teams were deducted points. With so many markets available – promotion, relegation, top half finish, bottom half finish – almost any points deduction can affect some bets. Southend would have competed in the playoffs if they had not been deducted ten points in the National League.

The season before Reading were docked six points in the EFL Championship while Juventus were stripped of ten points in Serie A. Reading went down instead of Cardiff. Milan qualified for the Champions League instead of Juventus. Backers of Juventus and Cardiff were upset. Backers of Reading and Milan were happy. One person’s despair, as so often in betting, was another person’s joy.

Is it fair for things that happen off the pitch to change things that happened on the pitch? I think so. One does affect the other. For example, a club can break financial fair play rules by spending more on transfer fees and wages. What they do off the pitch gives them an advantage on the pitch. Points deductions can be seen as an attempt, admittedly imprecise, to remove that advantage.

Right or wrong, though, points deductions can occur – and nearly all of the rules I have read acknowledge this reality. They say bets will be settled on the official standings, which include points deductions.

Betting without…

You are betting on which of the other teams in that league will finish highest.

There are Premier League markets this season without Manchester City. The winner will be whichever of the other 19 teams finish highest – the champions unless they are Manchester City, in which case the runners-up.

Some people argue that this market should be settled in a different way: on a table compiled from the results of games the other 19 teams play between themselves. In other words, ignore games involving Manchester City and make a table out of the rest. It is not what the rules say, though. Or a long string of precedents.

Handicaps

Other people think that handicap bets can be affected by no more than two teams – whoever they have backed and, if different, whoever wins the league. They are wrong.

Each team in a league are given a handicap, which can be any number of points from nought upwards. At the end of the season, handicap points are added to table points. A team must have a higher total than all of the others to be the winners.

If two or more teams have the same total, there is a tie. Goal difference is disregarded. Is that fair? I think so. Separating tied teams on goal difference would favour those with small handicaps and penalise those with big handicaps. If two teams with different handicaps are tied, the one with the smaller handicap must have gained more points and finished higher in the table. And, having finished higher in the table, they are likely to have a better goal difference.

Transfers

Bets on players to change club may not be ante-post, but they are struck at the same time so I will discuss them as well.

There are markets in which all bookmakers have the same rule, markets in which most have one rule but a few have another – and markets in which there is no consensus.

Such as transfers.

You will find all sorts of differences. Loans, for example, count with some bookmakers but not with others. One has a rule that seems to me to flatly contradict itself in references to players who say they will move at a later date. Suppose a player announces in January that they will sign for a club in August. I read the rule as saying in one place that the transfer will be regarded as completed in August and in another that it will be regarded as completed in January.

Awards

Which one?

Do you fancy someone for player of the year? There are at least three significant awards in England – from the Premier League, the Professional Footballers’ Association and the Football Writers’ Association. They do not always pick the same player. In four out of five recent seasons there was disagreement.

Manager of the year? There is a Premier League Manager of the Year. There is also a League Manager’s Association Premier League Manager of the Year, plus awards for each division of the EFL and an overall Manager of the Year.

A bookmaker’s market description should specify which gong you are betting on. Make sure it is one you want to be betting on.

Season not completed

What if for some reason fixtures are left uncompleted? It happened because of Covid in 2019-20 in, among other places, EFL League One and Two, all divisions of the Scottish Professional Football League and both divisions of the French Professional Football League. Then bookmakers did not have rules designed for such an eventuality. Now every one I have checked does – and they all say bets will be settled on official results.

If organisers declare a competition null and void, bets will be cancelled. If organisers announce a table will stand as it was at the time of abandonment, bets will be settled on that table. And if organisers say something else, bookmakers will do something else. IBAS might be asked whether we consider whatever approach is taken to be fair and reasonable, but we can only adjudicate on the actions of the bookmaker – we will never say that a league or competition organiser has reached an ill-judged decision.

Like backers of Reading and Milan, or Cardiff and Juventus, you will naturally prefer whatever on this occasion would be best for you. You will get what is in the rules. It is better to know now than to have your hopes raised then dashed.