SOME FACTS EVERY BETTOR SHOULD KNOW IN THE CLOSING WEEKS OF A FOOTBALL SEASON

By Kevin Pullein

WHEN the fat lady sings you do not want to hear a discordant note.

Another football season is almost over. In the last days there will be lots of finals and other trophy-deciding games. For the most important matches bookmakers offer the widest and most impressive range of markets. Some people will bet on things they have never bet on before.

They will all want to win but not all of them can. The worst way of losing is when it comes as an unpleasant surprise. You thought you had won then the bookmaker says you have lost. It a is a jarring, off-key sound.

Here are some settlement rules that have tripped up some people. Many of you will be aware of most of them, perhaps all. Some will not. None of them have I touched on before.

First player carded

One player kicks out, another kicks back. The referee shows both the yellow card. He shows it to the player who kicked back then to the player who kicked out.  Who was the first player carded?

For betting purposes there may be more than one answer, depending on who you’re betting with. We have encountered some bookmakers whose rules say it is the player who committed the first offence. When two or more offences are committed in quick succession the referee does not always show cards in the same order. In this market the deciding factor may be when the offence was committed, not necessarily when the card was shown.

Foul

Let us now think about an incident in which only one player does something wrong. A defender hacks down an opponent but the ball rolls to another attacker and the referee waves play on. At the next stoppage in play, the referee shows the defender a yellow card. They have been booked, but for betting purposes they may not have committed a foul.

Opta are a settlement source used by many bookmakers. They define a foul as an offence other than offside that is punished by a penalty or free kick. If the referee does not award a spot kick or free kick, Opta do not count a foul.

Goal or shot from outside the box

The difference between a penalty and free kick, of course, is whether the offence was committed inside or outside the penalty area. The Laws of the Game say on the line is inside. It can alter the referee’s punishment of an infringement. It can also affect a data company’s classification of a shot.

Forty out of every 100 shots are taken from outside the area. Only 15 out of every 100 goals are scored from outside the area. The further the ball is from goal the less likely it is to go in. Every metre matters. But for some betting markets the only consideration is whether the attempt was from inside or outside the box. If the ball was on the line it was inside.

Save

The difference between a shot on target and a goal is whether the keeper stops the ball from going in the net. If he does, he has made a save. Everyone agrees. Are there other circumstances in which a keeper can or should be credited with a save?

In a crowded penalty area the ball can hit an unsuspecting player and come of them in such a way that the keeper has to run, jump or dive across his goal to stop it from going in the net. Is that a save? Opta say it is if the ball bounces off a defender but not if the ball bounces off an attacker.

Personally, I find that distinction strange. I could understand an argument that a save is when the keeper stops a shot from going in the net, and that some other name should be given to everything else. I can also understand the argument that other things should be included. What I cannot understand is including difficult-to-deal-with rebounds off a defender but not off an attacker. It is only my opinion. Bets are not settled on my opinion but on a named data company’s definition.

Assist

Arrigo Sacchi used the term assist in his notebooks when he was coach of Milan in the 1980s. I cannot remember hearing it in Britain until later. When it did enter our football lingo it meant setting up a goal. It implied something a bit out of the ordinary – a special piece of skill. It has come to mean rather less – a pass, even the most ordinary of passes, to a player who scores.

But if a pass deflects off a defender Opta will not record an assist unless in their opinion the ball would have reached the scorer anyway. They will not credit an assist if they think the ball would have gone to somebody else.

Added time

Goals, keepers tipping the ball round a post or over the bar, fouls and cards – all these things interrupt a game.

Bets on added time are settled on the numbers displayed on the fourth official’s board, not on how long is played. There can be a discrepancy. In 24 out of 51 games at Euro 2024 – almost half – the total of added time played exceeded the total of added time shown on the fourth official’s board by at least one minute. The largest disparity was over three and a half minutes. In a recent Premier League game there was a surfeit of more than 15 minutes.

During the last two and a half seasons, the amount of added time of all types has been a lot higher than it was before. And bookmakers do not offer added time bets as often as they used to. The ones you see will be settled on the fourth official’s board, though.

It is always best to know what counts for betting purposes. Understanding is preferable to misunderstanding. Everybody hopes for a happy ending. Nobody likes a sad ending. You will get one or the other. It is better to know what it is going to be. The final curtain should bring closure.